Davy's 2020 forecast is bullish on Irish prospects, driven by its core views that export growth at high-tech multinationals will roar ahead and the UK's avoidance for now of a Brexit "cliff edge" will spur domestic investment.

Its report published today sees 2020 economic output growing by 5.5pc in gross domestic product (GDP), a major hike from its previous forecast of 4.1pc growth. It sees higher growth "on the back of strong foreign direct investment, exceptional export performance and expansion in the multinational sector".

Davy's forecast runs well ahead of recent 2020 GDP projections by the Central Bank of Ireland (4.3pc), the Department of Finance (3.9pc) and the Economic & Social Research Institute (3.3pc). Davy defends its rosier outlook, in part, by noting virtually all authorities have been underestimating the growth of FDI exports since 2017.

Davy says average home prices should rise 2pc this year and could rise further "if the top end of the market benefits from reduced Brexit uncertainty".

Home price increases last year slowed to a trickle in much of the country, particularly in Dublin, where the priciest homes have faced slack demand and price discounts.

Davy chief economist Conall Mac Coille said home prices experienced "a more aggressive slowdown than we would have thought" in 2019 amid Brexit uncertainty.

The UK's move to enter a transitional Brexit deal with the EU at the end of January, he said, could spur "the top end of the market to move up more aggressively in price". He added: "Brexit isn't going away as an issue, but at least we've got 12 months before there's the threat of another cliff edge."

Davy expects construction and sales of homes to grow, with mortgage lending set to rise to €10.7bn from €9.6bn in 2019. It foresees 25,000 housing completions this year, up from 21,800 in 2019.

Davy sees exports rising 11pc last year and 7pc this year - led by 8pc growth among the 1,550 multi-national firms based here.

Consumer spending is seen growing 3.2pc in 2020, Government spending by 3.2pc and investment by 5.3pc, including a 7pc gain in building and construction.

The workforce is projected to grow by 2.5pc while unemployment would fall from the current rate of 4.8pc - already a 13-year low - to just 4.4pc.

Davy says fears of a crash-out Brexit drove indigenous firms to be exceptionally cautious as around half of companies delayed investment decisions.

"Now that a 'no-deal' Brexit cannot occur in 2020, we expect output in indigenous sectors to grow by 3.5pc in 2020, slightly faster than the 3pc in 2019," its report says.

13 January 2020
Irish Independent

The Chamber - which represents 1,300 firms employing 300,000 people - says the housing scarcity and cost is driving wage inflation and pricing workers out of the capital.

Its election manifesto published yesterday says new housing inside the M50 must be higher-density and have stronger transport links.

"Businesses tell us that the availability and affordability of housing is the biggest issue facing them," said Aebhric McGibney, the Chamber's director of public and international affairs. "Not only is this leading to demand for wage increases, it's hurting Dublin's competitiveness generally as a place to live and work."

He said Chamber polls and focus groups had produced a consensus view that the next Government must "act decisively and ambitiously" to deliver new housing and transport links on deadline.

"There is a history of going back to the drawing board when governments change. But strong economic and population growth and increasing pressure on infrastructure means Dublin cannot afford further delays in key projects," he said. "Dublin's public transport offering is way behind where it should be."

The Chamber says the Dart Underground project should be "shovel-ready by 2025 to allow for construction to start immediately after the completion of MetroLink in 2027".

Its election manifesto says 858,000 people work in the capital, including 140,000 who commute from eight surrounding counties. It forecasts a 30pc rise in Dublin's population by 2030 to 1.7 million.

Co-ordinated development will require, it says, "a directly elected mayor, or an equivalent figure, with the necessary powers and responsibility to implement the Dublin Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan".

It highlights a need for smarter policies for two-wage families in the commuter belt, where greater adoption of flexible hours and remote working would cut childcare bills and traffic congestion.

It wants subsidies under the National Childcare Scheme to double to €100 weekly by 2023, leading to free childcare for most families by 2030; a €5,000 'return to work' credit and reduced income tax for second earners; and formal employer guidelines on their legal and insurance obligations to remote workers.

Dublin needs more women in the workforce, it says, but female participation "lags behind international benchmarks due to the high cost of childcare and the high marginal effective tax rate on second earners in a family".

Jan 24 2020
Irish Independent

The research which led to the creation of these maps analysed the average asking prices for two and three bedroom properties close to (controlling for time, size and type) each of the 67 Luas stops in the Greater Dublin Area for the period between July 2017 and June 2018.

Properties on the Luas Green line command the highest premium of any Luas properties, with average prices of €524,000 or €139,000 more than the Dublin average. On the Southside portion of the Green Line, the contrast is even greater – averaging out at a difference of €172,000 between Dublin in general and properties close to the Southside Green Luas line.

On the Red line, property values average out at €378,000 which is €7,000 cheaper than the Dublin average of €385,000.
Beechwood is the most expensive Luas stop to live by with average asking prices of €778,000. The least expensive stop is Cheeverstown with average asking prices of €197,000 for two and three bedroom properties within a kilometre of the stop.

Martin Clancy from Daft.ie said; “Access to transport infrastructure is, unsurprisingly driving up premiums for properties with good connectivity. For example, on the Luas green line, 24 of the 35 stops have average property prices of more than half a million euro.”

“We are delighted to today launch our interactive Luas house price maps and neighbourhood guides sponsored by KBC in collaboration with TheJournal.ie. These guides, available on both our mobile and desktop platforms are the culmination of many, many hours of design work and economic analysis of our data. We are confident they will arm property hunters with invaluable information about the connectivity of these neighbourhoods as well as the overall demographics of the area – along with some very novel trivia.”